The issue of access to food is becoming more and more relevant today. Of course, we are not talking about any famine; although the new harvest is expected to be lower than the previous one, it will be enough for domestic consumption. At the same time, the ability to buy the necessary food causes many citizens to feel justified in their anxiety. Rising inflation, high energy prices, the closure of production facilities, unemployment, and the war all ultimately affect the food security of Ukrainians, especially when it comes to socially vulnerable groups. The article describes how the situation will develop and what possible solutions are available.
Pros. estimates According to analysts of the Ukrainian Grain Association, this year farmers will harvest just over 64 million tons of grains and oilseeds. This is significantly less than last year, but it is many times higher than Ukraine's domestic needs. At the same time, economists believe that a significant part of the population will experience a shortage of essential foodstuffs one way or another, as they will simply not be able to buy them. Inflation is one of the major reasons for this. To. data According to the National Bank, inflation in Ukraine will accelerate to 31% by the end of this year. As a result, nominal wages will decline by 12%, and in real terms, i.e., after deducting inflation, by 27%. The situation is exacerbated by high unemployment and wage cuts at many public and private enterprises.
We should also expect a further rise in the price of basic products, which have already risen in price since the beginning of the war. Take bread, for example. According to the head of the Union of Ukrainian Peasants According to Ivan Tomych, there will be no change in bread prices in the coming months due to the low purchase price of grain, which is half that of last year, compared to the end of August. At the same time, the trends of pricing policy in the domestic market will vary depending on prices in foreign markets, and, in his opinion, a rise in prices is expected by the end of the year.
“I think the domestic wheat price will be much higher in late November and early December compared to today's price. Based on this, plus the rise in energy prices for baking bread, prices for bread and bakery products may rise to 20-25% in December and early January." - he told Pension Kurier.
We should also focus on meat, namely pork, the cost of which, according to the executive director of the Meat Industry Association Mykola Babenko, has increased by 50% since the second quarter in Ukraine and globally. Interestingly, the rise in price in our country occurred against the backdrop of cheaper feed. According to Babenko, Ukrainians consumed more meat than the country produces. As a result of the rise in import prices, the devaluation of the hryvnia by 25% and the return of duties and VAT on imported goods, which were canceled at the beginning of the war, led to an increase in pork prices. To this should be added an acute shortage of breeding stock, which also needs to be imported.
As a result of these factors, the cost of live weight of a pig increased from 45 UAH/kg to 70 UAH/kg at the end of August, the expert says. Given that only half of the animal's weight is pure meat, the cost of one kilogram of pork without transportation and extra charges is at least UAH 140.
"So, it won't be long before we see UAH 200 per kilogram of pork in stores. I think it will be in September. And we have no other way to increase the number of pigs to cover the deficit," emphasized Mykola Babenko.
It should be added that chicken meat, which is popular in the country, has risen in price by at least 18% over the year, according to the Zakaz.ua delivery service.
Lack of opportunities for savings
The economic difficulties in Ukraine have had the greatest impact on socially vulnerable citizens who have virtually no financial cushion. Last year, the Information Office of the Verkhovna Rada reported that 42% of working Ukrainians live below the poverty line. As for pensioners, the number of poor among them was even higher. Today, the situation is even worse. Moreover, with the change in the hryvnia exchange rate, a significant number of medicines have risen in price by a third or more, as the director of the consulting company William Invest Expert told our publication Viktor Medvid.
"People have nothing to save on. If we're talking about minimum pensions of about three thousand hryvnias, then if pensioners have basic needs for basic medicines, even without taking into account seasonal diseases, many products become unaffordable for them," said the expert.
To some extent, the situation is saved by humanitarian aid provided by the state. At the same time, the distribution of free rations, according to Viktor Medved, is unsystematic because it is not properly funded. That is, there are programs of the Cabinet of Ministers, but there is no money to implement them. As for local governments, the expert says that many individual territorial communities often have a negative balance amid the war, and the criteria of military administrations are different now. Therefore, there are not enough resources to provide targeted assistance to the needy. As a result, the economist believes, everything indicates the onset of an acute humanitarian problem, and therefore the social issue should be given as much attention as the protection of territories.
On the verge of survival
What do ordinary Ukrainians think about the economic situation in the country? 70-year-old Kyiv resident Rosalia Kukilko - is a second-group disabled person. Compared to last year, her pension was increased by UAH 100 to UAH 2.7 thousand, while her subsidy was cut. While last summer the subsidy compensated the pensioner for UAH 800 of utility bills and she paid an additional UAH 100-150, today it compensates only UAH 300, and Rosaliya Ivanovna has to pay the remaining UAH 600-700 from her own pension. The situation with food is no better.
"I can no longer afford buckwheat or rice. The same goes for vegetables. To cook borsch without meat will cost me more than 100 UAH. Last year, market vendors used to collect spoiled vegetables and fruits in a box and give them to me and other pensioners for free, but now they try to sell them. No one wants to give them away for free. As for meat, I manage to buy it only if I get a big discount at the supermarket. But you need to be in time before others take it away. Last year, I bought sausages for 60 UAH/kg, which I fried so that I wouldn't be disgusted to eat, and today they already cost 100 UAH/kg. And so it is with all products now," the pensioner said.
The situation with humanitarian aid is also difficult. In Podilskyi district, where our interlocutor lives, volunteers have significantly reduced the distribution of humanitarian aid. At the Center for Administrative Services, the woman was told that food parcels are not issued with her pension, but only to those who have the minimum wage, as well as to temporarily displaced persons and the disabled of the first group.
"And the disabled of the second group, it turns out, do not want to eat." - Rosalia Kukilko concludes with sadness.
A resident of Pryluky, Chernihiv region, also complains about the rapid rise in the cost of living, Zinaida Kirichenko, who receives UAH 2.8 thousand of pension.
"Before the war, 500 UAH was money, but now it's nothing. Last year, I could buy chicken drumsticks for 60 UAH, and today it costs 80 UAH per kilogram. Sea fish cost 80-90 UAH per kilogram, and now it's 120 UAH, and that's just pollock, hake is more expensive. In the spring, the wholesale price of sugar was 20 UAH/kg, and today it is 30 UAH/kg. It's good that I managed to stock up on vegetable oil at 260 UAH per five-liter bottle. Now the price is 315 UAH," she says.
Zinaida notes that many of her friends are now on austerity. Everyone is preparing for winter and high gas prices.
"My friend Oksana provided shelter to relatives from Mykolaiv. She is a hospitable person herself, but now she has to feed her guests mostly potatoes, as only one of them has an income - a pension, which she saves to pay for gas in winter. The IDPs themselves, as well as their 50-year-old son, a trucker, cannot find a job yet. There is simply no such thing," Zinaida emphasized.
Senior Research Fellow, PhD in Economics, Ptukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine . M. V. Ptukhy NAS of Ukraine Lyudmila Cherenko notes that many young people who are unemployed are in an even worse situation than older Ukrainians who receive a steady pension.
"Young people do run the risk of being left without income at some point. And it's working-age people with small children who are more likely to suffer. Because the whole family actually lives on the salary of one of the parents. And if he loses his job, everyone will suffer," she told our publication.
Of course, a person can apply for unemployment. However, since the end of June, the Cabinet of Ministers has limited unemployment benefits: after 30 days, citizens are encouraged to participate in socially useful work. The salary is the "minimum wage" of UAH 6.5 thousand. To live on this amount of money while having a family and renting a house in Kyiv is, frankly, an impossible task.
Olena Yanchenko, a resident of Boryspil district, who is raising two 13-year-old twin daughters with cerebral palsy, is lucky that her husband, Oleksandr, has a job.
"The company where Oleksandr works has stayed afloat. If my husband lost his job, we would have no one to help us. I don't work because I take care of my children, my parents and my husband's parents are retired." - she told Pension Kurier.
Otherwise, what happened in the first months of the war, when the family survived on disability payments for children and volunteer help, will happen.
Many young Ukrainian childless families are not in a better position today. Twenty-six-year-old Kyiv resident Valeria Kozub Since March, she has not been able to find a job in her specialty (she worked as a financier). As a result, the family lives on the salary of a 32-year-old male entrepreneur who is a specialist in interior design and also makes furniture. However, the young man's income has sharply decreased, and he has no major customers. He receives UAH 7-8 thousand per month. They are lucky that they live in their friends' three-room apartment and pay only for utilities.
"But I think we'll have to rent one of the rooms in the fall, otherwise we won't be able to afford the utilities." - Valeria notes.
Possible solutions
In the current economic environment, it is important to understand what support the government could provide to the population. According to Viktor Medved, it would be right to quickly index incomes for socially vulnerable categories to the level of food inflation. However, the availability of funds remains an important issue in indexation. Therefore, the economist considers it appropriate to provide the state with international humanitarian support.
"If the budget does not have the appropriate funds, it would be right to initiate a joint program with the UN, which has relevant areas, such as poverty reduction. Programs to help social categories of the population should be targeted. It can be both cash transfers and food rations," He summarized.
The experience of Western countries, which initiated the creation of food banks to support their socially vulnerable citizens, is interesting. There are similar centers for free distribution of food in almost 90% administrative districts of Germany, where free breakfasts for schoolchildren are provided as additional services. In Canada, food aid is also distributed free of charge to the poor, but once a month. In France, President Emmanuel Macron suggested in the spring that food stamps could be introduced, not only for the poor but also for middle-class citizens.
Perhaps Ukraine should adopt foreign experience, and work in all directions. Sociologists advise that local authorities should be widely involved in initiatives. The idea is to improve the coordination of social protection measures. After all, efforts at the local level can help identify and determine the degree of support that vulnerable categories of citizens need.
Employ pensioners
Another way to improve the financial situation of pensioners is to find a job. Many older people admit that they are willing to work full or part-time. This is confirmed by Rosaliya Kukilko, who complains that even before the war, no one wanted to hire her, and even more so today. In terms of employment, local governments could, for example, establish cooperation with businesses to build a system of employment for pensioners in exchange for certain preferences (tax cuts, land plots, etc.). The reward could be either money or food, medicine, etc. It should be added that in some countries, elderly people are involved in helping social services. This experience is also worth studying.
However, the most important issue in supporting Ukrainians is the initiative of the government itself. No matter how effective social programs are, if they face corruption, bureaucracy, and official indifference, they are ultimately doomed to failure. Therefore, the government needs to take steps to overcome such barriers.
The situation today is such that we cannot ignore the problems of society, as the economic and social situation in the country is very tense and has the potential to worsen. Therefore, we need other principles of relations between the government and citizens, as well as new principles of the economy, in order to have the resources to provide for people if traditional approaches fail.
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